Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.443856 0.513719 0.590191 0.680003 0.782483 0.895660 1.030012
2025-07-06 0.318058 0.410392 0.521887 0.665928 0.846538 1.064925 1.348379
2025-07-13 0.259751 0.362804 0.496409 0.681213 0.928944 1.248124 1.688873
2025-07-20 0.227614 0.339171 0.492396 0.716327 1.032959 1.461953 2.083917
2025-07-27 0.200106 0.315652 0.482584 0.738507 1.117438 1.653473 2.463599
2025-08-03 0.174735 0.290368 0.465296 0.745358 1.177584 1.813065 2.809668
2025-08-10 0.152245 0.265583 0.444526 0.742715 1.220774 1.948850 3.129706
2025-08-17 0.132411 0.241853 0.421753 0.733010 1.250075 2.063761 3.425155
2025-08-24 0.116046 0.221413 0.401345 0.723859 1.277749 2.176388 3.723958
2025-08-31 0.099908 0.198948 0.374485 0.700116 1.277651 2.242584 3.950993
2025-09-07 0.095227 0.196743 0.382515 0.737408 1.384335 2.492487 4.500968
2025-09-14 0.083197 0.178817 0.359882 0.716778 1.386545 2.564432 4.752628
2025-09-21 0.072626 0.162527 0.338788 0.697417 1.390483 2.642055 5.025362
2025-09-28 0.063735 0.148435 0.320286 0.680989 1.398330 2.727544 5.320135
2025-10-05 0.059221 0.142976 0.318227 0.696465 1.468164 2.931233 5.846227
2025-10-12 0.057041 0.142336 0.325909 0.732304 1.580936 3.223575 6.559781
2025-10-19 0.053853 0.138922 0.327263 0.754945 1.668954 3.474986 7.213539
2025-10-26 0.049716 0.132661 0.321640 0.761939 1.725115 3.668097 7.767564
2025-11-02 0.045315 0.125090 0.312138 0.759241 1.760238 3.821345 8.252763
2025-11-09 0.040909 0.116838 0.300055 0.749335 1.778649 3.941574 8.679348
2025-11-16 0.037018 0.109327 0.288790 0.739992 1.797172 4.062930 9.116350
2025-11-23 0.032710 0.100022 0.272026 0.715755 1.779694 4.106545 9.392908
2025-11-30 0.032116 0.100901 0.280686 0.753824 1.908647 4.473873 10.384964